15th July 2024

Welcome to the week my dear reader. Here’s what’s going down in all things oil, gas and energy today:

• 👀 Living through history

• 🐋 Kuwait’s “huge” discovery

• 🐼 China’s stuttering economy

• ➕ plus US rig count falls again; Iraq breaking quota; unlocking Guyana’s gas; Italy returning to nuclear.

📈 THE NUMBERS

🗞️ WELL-HEADLINES

 🗽 North America

• Oil rig count creeps down - the operational oil rig fleet in the US fell by 1 to 478, its lowest level since December 2021, and is now down 59 over the past year. However, US oil output remains at record highs of ~13.3 mmb/d as improved productivity is enabling drillers to do more with less.

🏰 Europe

• Russia may reinstate gasoline export ban - it had previously implemented the measure earlier in the year for several months to keep a lid on domestic prices and is considering doing the same again as domestic demand picks up.

• Q2 results season is underway - AkerBP misses profit estimate and reiterates production guidance.

🕌 The Middle East

• Kuwait announces “huge” discovery - KOC said the Al-Nukhida field has initial estimated reserves of ~2.1 bnbbls of light oil and 5.1 tcf of gas. Kuwait is a small and well explored country yet giant reserves like this are still being found. It’s a useful reminder that there is so much undiscovered oil still out there.

• Iraq fesses up to breaking OPEC+ quota - the country said that it produced 184 kb/d more than its allowance in June and promised to make up for it with future output cuts. Quota-breaking is commonplace in OPEC, but admitting to it is less so.

⛩️ Asia & Oceania

• India’s upstream ambitions - onshore and offshore blocks will be on offer later this year as the world’s second larger oil importer strives to boost its domestic production. The country is hoping to attract $100bn of O&G investments by 2030.

• Asian refiners thirsty for Canadian heavy crude - refiners in Japan and South Korea have made their first purchases of Canadian crude that has been unlocked to global markets by the recently opened Trans Mountain pipeline.

• China’s gas output gathering pace - domestic production grew by 6%, year on year, in H1 2024 to 124 bcm (approx the same amount as Norway). China is the world’s largest LNG importer and is investing heavily in ramping up its own gas output.

• Saipem bags $300m BP Azerbaijan gig - the services involve operating a construction vessel in the Caspian Sea at the Shah Deniz and Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli fields.

🦁 Africa

• NNPC loses shareholding in Dangote - the Nigerian NOC’s shareholding in the flagship 650 kb/d refinery has been reduced from 20% to 7.2% after it failed to pay the final balance of funds it owned for its initial purchase of the shares in 2021. The company that owns the refinery plans to list on the Nigerian stock exchange in 2025.

• Egypt’s exploration spree - the Petroleum Ministry has outlined plans by 40 companies to drill almost 600 wells by 2030 in the country. Egypt is also weighing up plans to install a second FSRU to increase gas imports.

🗿 Central & South America

• Exxon pressing ahead with Guyana gas appraisal - so far, most of the massive success in Guyana has been with oil. Exxon is hoping to change this as it undergoes appraisal work at the Haimara discovery which could be the first standalone gas development in the prolific Stabroek block.

🌍 GEOPOLITICS & MACRO

• Living through history - as almost everyone on planet earth will know, Donald Trump survived an assassination attempt by a matter of millimeters while holding a rally in Pennsylvania. After getting shot he got straight up, face covered in blood, fist pumped the air, and was on the golf course a few hours later. The Democrats could field Abraham Lincoln and they still wouldn’t win the election after that. Crazy to think how the course of history can be altered by such small margins. Wild wild times.

• China’s economy underwhelms - the GDP of the world’s second largest oil consumer grew by 4.7%, year on year in Q2 2024, lower than the 5.1% forecast by analysts and the government’s 5% target. The disappointing readings increase the likelihood of more government stimulus for an economy that is being weighed down by a struggling property market and slow wage growth hitting consumer spending.

💨 CARBON, CLIMATE, & OTHER ENERGY STUFF

• Italy returns to nuclear - another day, another country announces it’s betting on nuclear energy for reliable, clean power. Italy shut down its last nuclear power station 35 years ago but is now hoping it can have small modular reactors operational within the next decade.

🛢️ BOTTOM OF THE BARREL

As you can imagine, the internet had a field day after the weekend’s events:

After some of the mainstream media’s ridiculously understated headlines (CNN said “SS rushes Trump off stage after he falls in rally”):

👋 BEFORE YOU GO 

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Thanks for reading. Have a day out there. 🛢️🛢️

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