20th January 2025

Trump time | “National energy emergency” | Flaming batteries | Bitter sweet in the Barents

Good morning team. Here’s everything that went down over the weekend in oil, gas, and energy:

  • 🚨 National energy emergency

  • 🕺 Trump time

  • 🔋 Flaming batteries

  • 😬 Bitter sweet in the Barents

  • ➕ plus Iran and Russia cosy up; a Texan deep freeze; SLB under pressure in Russia; Libya hunting for investment; hope for German energy policy; and barrels more.

Let’s go.

📈 THE NUMBERS

As of 04:50 ET. N.B. prices for JKM LNG and uranium can be delayed by a day or two.

🗞️ WELL-HEADLINES

 🗽 North America

  • “National energy emergency” - it’s not entirely clear what he means, but Trump has said he’d invoke emergency powers on day one to unleash domestic energy production. Expect climate policy rollbacks, opening up of federal land for drilling, and directives for a major build out of new power stations.

  • Texas producers brace for a deep freeze - an Arctic cold front has brought some of the coldest temperatures in years to parts of Texas, and O&G companies are working to prevent pipelines, wells, and other equipment from freezing up.

  • API and states sue US government - the group is challenging the Biden gov’t ban on new O&G leasing across millions of acres of federal waters. “Today we’re taking action to reverse this politically motivated decision and ensure our nation’s vast offshore resources remain a critical source of affordable energy, government revenue and stability around the world”, said the API.

  • Rig count edges down - the number of operational oil rigs fell by 2 last week to 478, while gas rigs also fell by 2 to 98. The combined total is the lowest since December 2021 but increased efficiencies have ensured that production is still growing in the US shale patch.

🏰 Europe

  • Bitter sweet in the Barents - Vår and its partners have discovered gas in the Elgol prospect in the Barents Sea but estimates indicate the discovery is not economically viable. Barents is believed to hold huge volumes of resources but its harsh conditions and lack of infra make extracting those molecules an expensive challenge.

  • SLB under pressure in Russia but bumps dividends - the giant service provider has continued to work in Russia and insists its operations there “are aligned with the new sanctions” but said its revenues in the country are declining. Meanwhile, SLB announced a higher dividends on the back of strong Q4 results.

  • Chevron eyeing up Greece - the supermajor wants to explore for hydrocarbons off the turquoise Mediterranean coast.

🕌 The Middle East

  • A quiet weekend in these parts.

⛩️ Asia & Oceania

  • Damned if you do, damned if you don’t - Woodside’s plans for a carbon capture facility at its proposed multibillion-dollar Browse project in Australia has been branded as greenwashing by the country’s Green Party. There’s no pleasing some people. I’d scrap the carbon capture if I were them.

  • BP restarts Shah Deniz - the giant gas and condensate field in Azerbaijan was shut in earlier in January due to a technical problem. The field supplies gas that is exported to Europe.

Browse is Australia's largest untapped conventional gas resource

🦁 Africa

  • Libya hunting for $4bn in investments - the country’s O&G minister said this is what’s needed for Libya to reach 1.6 mmb/d in oil production (from ~1.4 mmb/d today). The country, which relies on oil for ~95% of its GDP, is about to approve a new licencing round to attract international players.

🗿 Central & South America

  • Condor Energy’s Peruvian gas boost - the company has announced that its Piedra Redonda field offshore Peru holds ~ 1tcf of natural gas following a new reserves review.

  • Argentine short on gas in heatwave - Bolivia and Chile are in talks to restart gas exports to Argentina amid a surge in demand caused by a summer heat wave.

🌍 GEOPOLITICS & MACRO

  • Trump time - Donald Trump is getting inaugurated as the 47th President of the US today in Washington. In a break from the norm, sub-zero temperatures have forced the ceremony to take place indoors. Rumours are that he’ll sign over 200 executive orders on his first day in office. Hold onto your hats, the next four years are going to be anything but boring.

  • Iran and Russia sign 20-year pact - the presidents of the two allies met in Moscow over the weekend to finalize a treaty that involves cooperation in a range of areas including their security services and military drills. Russia has been cosying up to Iran since its widespread ostracization following its invasion of Ukraine.

  • How kind of the Houthis - following the Gaza ceasefire, the militant group wreaking havoc in the Red Sea has said it will now limit its attacks to Israeli ships, allowing other ships to pass through.

Trump’s 2017 official portrait vs today’s. The man means business.

💨 CARBON, CLIMATE, & OTHER ENERGY STUFF

  • World’s largest grid battery up in flames, again - a fire at the Moss Landing lithium battery facility in California with 3 GWh of storage capacity caused the evacuation of 1,500 people and has raised fresh concerns about the safety of lithium batteries. This isn’t even the first fire at this facility…

  • “50 gas-fired power plants in Germany” - this is what the opposition leader Friedrich Merz, who is tipped to be Germany's next chancellor after the snap election in February, wants to build “as quickly as possible”. Finally some energy sense returning to world’s fourth largest economy.

Doesn’t look very green to me.

🛢️ BOTTOM OF THE BARREL

👋 BEFORE YOU GO

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Thanks for reading. Have a day out there. 🛢️🛢️

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