23rd April 2025

Hello, hello. Hope you all had a nourishing Easter break. Let’s get back to it. Here’s whats happening in all things oil and gas:

• 🕊️ Glimmers of hope in Ukraine

• ⚡ Aramco and EVs

• 🔨 IMF whacks growth forecasts

• 📈 Elliott takes 5% BP stake

• ➕ plus Barossa gets final approval, Conoco planning layoffs; ADNOC cosying up to China; first oil at Ballymore; EQT splashes $1.8bn; MODEC wins big in Guyana; $8bn of renewable projects binned; and barrels more.

Here goes…

📈 THE NUMBERS

Dare I say it, but oil prices are creeping back up…

🗞️ WELL-HEADLINES

 🗽 North America

• First oil at Ballymore - Chevron is celebrating the start-up of the field in the US Gulf’s Mississippi Canyon area, which is expected to produce 75 kb/d of oil at peak. The field is tied back to Chevron’s Blind Faith facility three miles away and has recoverable reserves of 150 mmboe.

• EQT bags Olympus Energy assets for $1.8bn - the privately held upstream and midstream gas assets are in the Marcellus shale gas play. EQT is using a combination of cash and shares to pay for the deal.

• Conoco planning layoffs - the US firm is making an as-of-yet undisclosed number of job cuts at the end of this year as part of a “restructuring” initiative to become “more efficient”. The company is also looking to cut costs and consolidate its workforce after its $23bn buy of Marathon Oil.

• Venture closes $2.5bn bond raise - the company said it would use the proceeds, which have a cost of ~7.5%, to refinance debt it used to develop its new Plaquemines LNG facility.

• Lull continues in new US pipeline completions - five new petroleum product pipelines were completed in the US last year in 2024. 10 years earlier, 35 new projects were completed. What’s happened? More regulatory burdens blocking new projects? Reduced need for more?

🏰 Europe

• Activist Elliott ups BP stake - the investor now owns over 5% of BP and is the second largest shareholder as it looks to increase its influence and drive change at the struggling UK supermajor. Elliott wants BP to massively increase its free cash flow from $8bn last year to $20bn by 2027. That’s a very tall order without slashing costs or hoping for high oil prices.

• Equinor shareholders kicking up a climate fuss - large institutional investors at the Norwegian company filed a shareholder resolution asking it to account for the "inconsistency” between plans to ramp up oil and gas production and emissions reductions targets.

🕌 The Middle East

• Aramco’s EV foray - the Saudi NOC has signed an agreement with BYD, the Chinese EV giant, to collaborate in the development of new energy vehicle technologies. Saudi has set an ambitious target to increase EV adoption from 1% to 30% within five years. Keep your friends close and your enemies closer…

• ADNOC cosying up to China - the UAE company has signed a long term LNG supply deal with China for 1 mtpa for 15 years, and has also opened a new office in Beijing as it looks to deepen ties with one of its largest energy customers.

⛩️ Asia & Oceania

• Big oil offshoring to India - like many industries looking to take advantage of cheap but skilled labour abroad, Chevron, BP and other oil majors are moving increasing amounts of engineering jobs to India where salaries are about one quarter of what they are in the US.

• Taiwan toys with more US LNG buys - the Asian nation is working hard to appease the US to get tariffs removed and is working up plans to invest more in the US and buy more of its LNG.

• Barossa gets final approval - Santos’ giant offshore Australia gas project, which has been hamstrung by various environmental challenges, has got the final government approval to being production. Start up is due in Q3 2025 and the gas will be used to feed the Darwin LNG project.

🦁 Africa

• Good news for BW in Gabon - the Norwegian company says reserves and quality of discovered oil are sufficient to underpin four development wells at a new discovery offshore Gabon.

• Morocco LNG? - the north African nation is about to launch a long delayed tender process to build a floating LNG import terminal.

🗿 Central & South America

• MODEC celebrating Exxon FPSO contract win - the Japanese company has won the contract to build an FPSO at Exxon’s Hammerhead project offshore Guyana. The vessel will have a capacity of 150 kb/d of oil and is targeting a start up in 2029. The size of the contract wasn’t disclosed but new FPSOs these days cost about ~$2bn.

🌍 GEOPOLITICS & MACRO

• Putin offers to halt invasion - Russia has reportedly offered to stop advancing in Ukraine as a concession to begin peace talks. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s president has said they are ready to talk once a ceasefire is put in place. Other updates include the US proposing to recognise Crimea as part of Russia, and a US delegation is heading to Moscow this week for a new round of talks with Putin. Glimmer of hope?

• IMF slashes global growth forecasts - citing the impact of new US tariffs which is creating uncertainty that is “off the charts”, the IMF has cut its forecast for global GDP growth in 2025 to 2.8%, down from its 3.3% January forecast. US growth forecast was cut from 2.7% to 1.8% in 2025, down from 2.8% growth in 2024. Ouch. “We are entering a new era as the global economic system that has operated for the last 80 years is being reset” - the IMF chief economist said.

💨 CARBON, CLIMATE, & OTHER ENERGY STUFF

• $8bn of renewables projects binned - hostile regulation and uncertainty forced companies to cancel $8bn worth of investments into new US renewable projects in Q1 of this year. Trump has been slashing government support for renewables since he came into office. It goes to show how dependent many of these projects are subsidies.

🛢️ BOTTOM OF THE BARREL

👋 BEFORE YOU GO

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Thanks for reading. Have a day out there. 🛢️🛢️

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